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Draw Challenges
2026 Australian Open Men's Singles Draw Challenges Distribution of predictions (1796 participants)
Champion
C Alcaraz [1] 817 45.6%
J Sinner [2] 739 41.3%
N Djokovic [4] 121 6.8%
D Medvedev [11] 39 2.2%
A Zverev [3] 10 0.6%
A Bublik [10] 9 0.5%
Wu YB [Q] 7 0.4%
F Auger-Aliassime [7] 7 0.4%
A Rublev [13] 5 0.3%
4:
T Fritz [9]
3:
H Hurkacz
2:
J Mensik [16]
J Fonseca [28]
G Dimitrov
Shang JC
L Musetti [5]
S Tsitsipas [31]
C Ruud [12]
1:
L Tien [25]
F Cobolli [20]
R Jodar [Q]
A de Minaur [6]
L Nardi
A Rinderknech [24]
Bu YCKT [W]
V Vacherot [30]
Zhang ZZ
M McDonald [L]
S Wawrinka [W]
N Basavareddy [Q]
M Zheng [Q]
F Maestrelli [Q]
Sakamoto R [Q]
Winner of Top Half
C Alcaraz [1] 1518 84.8%
D Medvedev [11] 131 7.3%
A Zverev [3] 36 2.0%
F Auger-Aliassime [7] 32 1.8%
A Bublik [10] 29 1.6%
A Rublev [13] 13 0.7%
L Tien [25] 8 0.4%
Zhang ZZ 7 0.4%
A de Minaur [6] 6 0.3%
2:
F Cobolli [20]
1:
A Davidovich Fokina [14]
A Blockx [L]
A Rinderknech [24]
M McDonald [L]
J Kubler [Q]
L Draxl [Q]
M Zheng [Q]
J Faria [Q]
A Fery [Q]
Winner of Bottom Half
J Sinner [2] 1534 85.6%
N Djokovic [4] 174 9.7%
H Hurkacz 20 1.1%
Wu YB [Q] 12 0.7%
J Mensik [16] 7 0.4%
V Vacherot [30] 6 0.3%
C Ruud [12] 6 0.3%
J Fonseca [28] 5 0.3%
4:
T Fritz [9]
G Dimitrov
3:
Shang JC
2:
D Shapovalov [21]
L Musetti [5]
S Tsitsipas [31]
B Shelton [8]
1:
R Jodar [Q]
L Nardi
Bu YCKT [W]
Z Bergs
S Wawrinka [W]
N Basavareddy [Q]
A Gea [Q]
F Maestrelli [Q]
Sakamoto R [Q]
Finalists
C Alcaraz [1] VS     J Sinner [2] 1359 75.9%
C Alcaraz [1] VS     N Djokovic [4] 112 6.3%
D Medvedev [11] VS     J Sinner [2] 89 5.0%
D Medvedev [11] VS     N Djokovic [4] 33 1.8%
F Auger-Aliassime [7] VS     J Sinner [2] 26 1.5%
A Bublik [10] VS     J Sinner [2] 23 1.3%
A Zverev [3] VS     J Sinner [2] 23 1.3%
C Alcaraz [1] VS     H Hurkacz 15 0.8%
A Zverev [3] VS     N Djokovic [4] 10 0.6%
C Alcaraz [1] VS     Wu YB [Q] 7 0.4%
C Alcaraz [1] VS     V Vacherot [30] 6 0.3%
A Rublev [13] VS     N Djokovic [4] 6 0.3%
A Rublev [13] VS     J Sinner [2] 5 0.3%
A Bublik [10] VS     N Djokovic [4] 5 0.3%
Finalists Long-tailed Data
4:
C Alcaraz [1] VS G Dimitrov
3:
C Alcaraz [1] VS J Fonseca [28]
Zhang ZZ VS Wu YB [Q]
F Auger-Aliassime [7] VS N Djokovic [4]
A de Minaur [6] VS J Sinner [2]
L Tien [25] VS J Sinner [2]
C Alcaraz [1] VS J Mensik [16]
2:
F Auger-Aliassime [7] VS J Mensik [16]
Zhang ZZ VS N Djokovic [4]
D Medvedev [11] VS H Hurkacz
C Alcaraz [1] VS D Shapovalov [21]
A Zverev [3] VS T Fritz [9]
D Medvedev [11] VS C Ruud [12]
C Alcaraz [1] VS C Ruud [12]
L Tien [25] VS N Djokovic [4]
C Alcaraz [1] VS B Shelton [8]
1:
A Rublev [13] VS T Fritz [9]
L Tien [25] VS Shang JC
L Tien [25] VS Wu YB [Q]
F Cobolli [20] VS J Mensik [16]
F Auger-Aliassime [7] VS R Jodar [Q]
D Medvedev [11] VS T Fritz [9]
A de Minaur [6] VS H Hurkacz
A Davidovich Fokina [14] VS J Sinner [2]
A Bublik [10] VS J Fonseca [28]
A Blockx [L] VS L Nardi
A Rinderknech [24] VS C Ruud [12]
Zhang ZZ VS Bu YCKT [W]
F Cobolli [20] VS J Sinner [2]
C Alcaraz [1] VS Z Bergs
M McDonald [L] VS J Mensik [16]
C Alcaraz [1] VS Shang JC
A Rublev [13] VS H Hurkacz
D Medvedev [11] VS J Fonseca [28]
D Medvedev [11] VS L Musetti [5]
D Medvedev [11] VS S Tsitsipas [31]
C Alcaraz [1] VS S Tsitsipas [31]
J Kubler [Q] VS S Wawrinka [W]
D Medvedev [11] VS Wu YB [Q]
L Tien [25] VS L Musetti [5]
L Draxl [Q] VS N Basavareddy [Q]
M Zheng [Q] VS A Gea [Q]
J Faria [Q] VS F Maestrelli [Q]
A de Minaur [6] VS N Djokovic [4]
Zhang ZZ VS Shang JC
A Fery [Q] VS Sakamoto R [Q]
A Zverev [3] VS H Hurkacz
A de Minaur [6] VS C Ruud [12]
Winner of 1st Quarter
C Alcaraz [1] 1681 93.9%
A Bublik [10] 81 4.5%
A de Minaur [6] 14 0.8%
3:
T Paul [19]
2:
F Cobolli [20]
N Budkov Kjaer [Q]
M McDonald [L]
1:
F Tiafoe [29]
A Davidovich Fokina [14]
J Kubler [Q]
Z Svajda [Q]
M Zheng [Q]
A Fery [Q]
Winner of 2nd Quarter
D Medvedev [11] 906 50.6%
F Auger-Aliassime [7] 338 18.9%
A Zverev [3] 287 16.0%
A Rublev [13] 98 5.5%
L Tien [25] 97 5.4%
Zhang ZZ 34 1.9%
A Rinderknech [24] 10 0.6%
F Cerundolo [18] 8 0.4%
4:
C Norrie [26]
2:
A Blockx [L]
M Giron
1:
K Jacquet [W]
M Arnaldi
L Draxl [Q]
J Faria [Q]
D Dzumhur
A Tabilo
Winner of 3rd Quarter
N Djokovic [4] 1321 73.7%
H Hurkacz 164 9.2%
T Fritz [9] 82 4.6%
J Mensik [16] 64 3.6%
L Musetti [5] 56 3.1%
Shang JC 30 1.7%
S Tsitsipas [31] 23 1.3%
J Lehecka [17] 18 1.0%
G Dimitrov 11 0.6%
S Wawrinka [W] 6 0.3%
T Machac 6 0.3%
2:
Sakamoto R [Q]
Z Bergs
1:
T Atmane
L Djere
R Jodar [Q]
B van de Zandschulp
Mochizuki S
A Gea [Q]
F Maestrelli [Q]
Winner of 4th Quarter
J Sinner [2] 1702 95.0%
Wu YB [Q] 23 1.3%
V Vacherot [30] 16 0.9%
B Shelton [8] 13 0.7%
C Ruud [12] 10 0.6%
J Fonseca [28] 8 0.4%
D Shapovalov [21] 8 0.4%
2:
Bu YCKT [W]
U Humbert
1:
L Nardi
K Khachanov [15]
G Monfils
N Basavareddy [Q]
D Prizmic [L]
M Damm [Q]
D Sweeny [Q]
D Altmaier
Winner of Section 1
C Alcaraz [1] 1772 98.8%
T Paul [19] 12 0.7%
3:
S Korda
2:
N Budkov Kjaer [Q]
1:
A Davidovich Fokina [14]
R Opelka
Z Svajda [Q]
M Zheng [Q]
T Schoolkate
Winner of Section 2
A de Minaur [6] 857 47.8%
A Bublik [10] 846 47.2%
F Cobolli [20] 42 2.3%
F Tiafoe [29] 29 1.6%
M McDonald [L] 10 0.6%
3:
H Medjedovic
2:
J Kubler [Q]
1:
M Navone
C Ugo Carabelli
P Kypson [W]
M Kecmanovic
A Fery [Q]
Winner of Section 3
A Zverev [3] 1174 65.4%
A Rublev [13] 411 22.9%
F Cerundolo [18] 89 5.0%
Zhang ZZ 61 3.4%
C Norrie [26] 30 1.7%
A Popyrin 10 0.6%
G Diallo 5 0.3%
4:
A Blockx [L]
3:
B Bonzi
M Arnaldi
2:
K Jacquet [W]
1:
L Draxl [Q]
J Faria [Q]
D Dzumhur
Winner of Section 4
D Medvedev [11] 1110 61.8%
F Auger-Aliassime [7] 475 26.5%
L Tien [25] 170 9.5%
A Rinderknech [24] 25 1.4%
3:
M Giron
2:
JM Cerundolo
J Thompson [W]
1:
N Borges
E Ymer [Q]
K Majchrzak
J Fearnley
F Marozsan
Q Halys
A Shevchenko
A Tabilo
Winner of Section 5
T Fritz [9] 765 42.6%
L Musetti [5] 382 21.3%
J Lehecka [17] 243 13.5%
S Tsitsipas [31] 177 9.9%
G Dimitrov 85 4.7%
T Machac 83 4.6%
S Wawrinka [W] 34 1.9%
L Sonego 7 0.4%
JL Struff 6 0.3%
3:
L Djere
V Royer
2:
A Gea [Q]
R Collignon
1:
Mochizuki S
C Taberner
V Kopriva
Winner of Section 6
N Djokovic [4] 1408 78.4%
H Hurkacz 207 11.5%
J Mensik [16] 111 6.2%
Shang JC 51 2.8%
Z Bergs 6 0.3%
3:
T Griekspoor [23]
2:
Sakamoto R [Q]
1:
T Atmane
R Jodar [Q]
R Bautista Agut
B van de Zandschulp
B Nakashima [27]
E Quinn
F Maestrelli [Q]
Winner of Section 7
B Shelton [8] 852 47.5%
C Ruud [12] 475 26.5%
V Vacherot [30] 232 12.9%
D Shapovalov [21] 82 4.6%
U Humbert 71 4.0%
Bu YCKT [W] 37 2.1%
J Munar 19 1.1%
G Monfils 7 0.4%
M Cilic 5 0.3%
4:
A Mannarino
3:
D Altmaier
D Sweeny [Q]
2:
M Damm [Q]
1:
D Svrcina
R Hijikata [W]
M Bellucci
Winner of Section 8
J Sinner [2] 1735 96.7%
Wu YB [Q] 28 1.6%
K Khachanov [15] 13 0.7%
J Fonseca [28] 12 0.7%
1:
L Nardi
H Gaston
G Mpetshi Perricard
N Basavareddy [Q]
D Prizmic [L]
C O'Connell [W]
J Duckworth [W]